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The Iran Question in Iraqi Upcoming Elections

On March 7, 2010 Iraq will hold parliamentary elections. One of the main issues on the campaign trail is just how close Iraq’s ties to Iran should be. The candidates are divided along nationalist and pro-Iranian lines, with nationalists raising concerns about becoming a puppet state of Iran.

The situation was highlighted by the standoff sparked by Iran sending her troops to occupy an Iraqi oil well. The Iraqi security forces at first did not react to the provocation, raising speculations that they were compromised by Pro-Iranian elements and unwilling to defend Iraq’s sovereignty. The standoff was eventually resolved by diplomatic means and ostensibly Iraqi troops went back over the border to Iran. However, some questions remained about this affair, where one Iraqi official stated that in reality the Iranian troops never crossed the border back to Iran.

Ayad Jamal Al-Din an Iraqi Member of Parliament chastised certain pro-Iranian elements in Parliament, stating:

“The political parties that are friends with Iran must realize that there is one country called Iraq and another called Iran. Their relations with Iran must not come at the expense of the interests and stability of Iraq. Unfortunately, we did not see an [Iraqi] response on the scale of the Iranian [seizure of the Fakkah oil well in December 2009]. On the contrary, some Iraqi politicians have volunteered to defend Iran and its measure, without any justification, and without trying to resolve the issue diplomatically. Nobody called to wage a war. We don’t have the ability or the will to wage a war, but ’suspicion always haunts the guilty mind.”

In addition Al-Din touched on a key point, stating that Iranian influence has been covert and gained stealthily while the American occupation has been out in the open:

“The American occupation – if you want to call it that – is evident: There are tanks, there are planes, and there are the UN Security Council resolutions, which enable us to force the U.S. to protect Iraq, in accordance with international law. But with regard to Iran – there is nothing. There are no Iranian tanks at which we can point our finger.”

Iran’s influence in Iraq has been steadily growing since to the 2003 coalition forces’ invasion and ouster of Saddam Hussein from power. Iran has supplied and armed guerilla militias with Katyusha rockets, handheld launchers and roadside bombs that were used against coalition forces. Iran sent religious students to study at Iraq universities; where as one third of those students were intelligence agents whose mission was to preach at the holy sites to influence Iraqi elections. Iran has also been a key influence in the Iraqi economy, Iraq being of Iran’s largest trading partners.

Iran has also stretched its hands into Iraqi politics. Many of the current Iraqi MP’s were exiled and nurtured in Iran during the days of Sadaam. The Iraqi foreign minister is slate to travel to Iran in February to pay an official visit to Teheran; this visit is anticipated to be the first of many trips by Iraqi officials ahead of the elections. Such actions illustrate how far Iran has penetrated Iraqi politics.

The reason for such close political ties can be attributed to a higher religious purpose, some in Iraq believe in one Islamic nation state. Al-Din calls these Iraqis Islamist, explaining:

“The Islamists do not recognize the modern state. They do not recognize the borders between Iraq and Iran, and so on. Their motto is: ‘God has destroyed the borders they have built.’ They do not recognize nation states. The Ba’thists believe that there is one country – from Iraq to Morocco.”

The U.S. must anticipate and prepare for the very real possibility that once she withdraws from Iraq, Iran will be more than happy to fill the vacuum.